Pressure may be the best way to limit Brady's success, but it only reaches him if it comes quickly. Brady held the ball for 3.5 or more seconds on just 8.0% of his dropbacks, the 13th-lowest rate of those qualified passers. Brady's 8.7-yard aDOT on the throws he released in less than 3.5 seconds was a positive outlier - just four other quarterbacks of the 36 that threw 200 or more pass attempts even reached 8.0 average depth of target on quick throws. Brady led the league with a 9.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) because he crashed through the apparent ceiling of air yards on quick throws. Other quarterbacks have to hold the ball to throw deep. It probably should not have surprised anyone that Brady made what seemed impossible possible. Maybe an old quarterback can learn new tricks, but Arians' preferred trick seemed to invite the types of plays on which Brady had performed the worst in recent seasons and, worse, subject Brady to the hits that even a 43-year-old health and wellness guru would rather avoid. Brady skewed that way in his career and became the best to ever play his position. Typically, quarterbacks avoid pressure by making quick decisions and shorter throws. Since he turned 40 years old, Brady has seen the differential in his passing DVOA rates with and without pressure balloon from the second-smallest in 2017 to the fourth-biggest this season. It isn't an arm strength thing - it's a pressure thing. Tom Brady seemed like a square peg for the round hole of head coach Bruce Arians' offensive philosophy, which aims to aggressively stretch the field. If you have FO+, you can click here to see all the matchup of DVOA splits for this game. Tampa Bay at Green BayĪll readers can click here for the open in-game discussion t hread. All stats represent regular season only, except for weighted DVOA and anything else specifically noted. Game charting data appears courtesy Sports Info Solutions, unless noted. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur supported Rodgers' late-30s renaissance with schematic improvements, but he'll need all of his creativity to beat a team where the stars play in the best positions to disrupt his typical game plan.įor those who may be unfamiliar with the Football Outsiders stats, they are explained at the bottom of the page. But that apparent momentum swing distracts from a broader truth that the Bucs dominated that game at the line of scrimmage and have the right personnel advantages to do so again this weekend. Neither of those things is likely to happen again this Sunday. The first followed a poor Rodgers decision to throw to the left sideline off his back foot, and the second followed a deflection of a failed Davante Adams catch in the middle of the field. The Bucs erased a 10-0 deficit that week with a pair of second-quarter interceptions. And it would be on brand for me to do the same for their 38-10 drubbing of the Packers from Week 6. I spent nearly 2,500 words last week explaining why I doubted their 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 9 foreshadowed a similar result in the divisional round rematch. The Buccaneers were consistent performers this season except in two games. The winning team may be the one that better helps its quarterback, not the one who leans on him the most. With resumes like that, it's tempting to think that whichever great quarterback is at his greatest on Sunday will win, but that would not be fair to the 94 other active players on gameday, nor to their coaching staffs. (Brady and Mahomes will also qualify for that list when Mahomes wins his second MVP award, which seems inevitable to happen sooner or later).īetween the two of them, Brady and Rodgers have won seven Super Bowls and five MVP awards (and counting), and they have led the league in passing DYAR five times and DVOA six times. Brady and Rodgers will be just the second pair of quarterbacks with multiple MVP awards to meet in the conference championship round, joining Brady and Manning, who has five MVP awards. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers has two MVP trophies, and is the favorite to win this year's award as well. Brady is a three-time MVP, taking home the hardware in 2007, 2010, and 2017. Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers will be the 14th such meeting. Only one other pairing has occurred more than once: Terry Bradshaw and the Steelers faced Kenny Stabler and the Raiders three times in the 1970s. Tom Brady has played in five of those games - four against Peyton Manning, one against Patrick Mahomes. That hasn't happened very often, only 13 times in 100 conference championship games since the merger. What is the greatest quarterback matchup in conference championship history?Ī simple way to look at that question is to search for games where each team was quarterbacked by a past (or future) MVP of the league.
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